New essay: Surviving and Thriving in a G-Zero World: A Roadmap for Canada in Asia
His essay, “Surviving and Thriving in a G-Zero World: A Roadmap for Canada in Asia” outlines what a “leaderless” world will look like for Canada, as well as the risks and growth opportunities of doing business in Asia.
Excerpts from the essay:
“…for the first time since the end of World War II, the world lacks predictable global leadership. In the United States, partisan combat and mounting federal debt have downgraded hopes for full recovery from the 2008–2009 recession. The European debt crisis, meanwhile, has crippled confidence in that region’s institutions and its future. In Japan, the rebuilding following last year’s earthquake and tsunami has proven far easier than recovery from two decades of political and economic malaise. A generation ago, these were the world’s powerhouses. Today, they are struggling. Meanwhile, emerging powers such as China, India, Brazil, and Indonesia are too preoccupied with domestic challenges to accept a larger share of global political and economic leadership…
“What does that mean for Canada? To be sure, Canada’s export-powered economy remains vulnerable to slow growth in the United States. But thanks in part to the financial crisis and its impact on U.S. purchasing power, the percentage of Canada’s exports to countries other than the United States jumped from 18 percent in 2005 to more than 25 percent just four years later.
In addition, Canada now draws nearly 40 percent of its imports from countries other than its giant neighbor to the south. This trend is not simply the product of the global market meltdown; Canada and Canadian companies were working to build commercial ties with Asia for years before recession took hold in the United States, and Canada has made considerable progress toward a free trade agreement with the European Union (EU). Canada exports large volumes of oil, but also natural gas, industrial machinery, auto parts, timber, and many other products to many different countries.
In short, Canada is well on its way to becoming a pivot state, a country capable of avoiding excessive dependence on one powerful commercial partner by diversifying its trade and investment relationships. The G-Zero order offers Canada and Canadian companies important opportunities, which the country’s political and business leaders should seize. Of these, the most important, and potentially most lucrative, are in Asia.”